Posts Categorized: Politics

Codes of Behaviour

Observing America’s presidential election from afar has been a curious experience for foreigners. The next President will be the de facto ruler of the advanced nations, unelected by them, but subject to his or her overreaching strategic commands. On the one hand, we see the establishment candidate accused of criminal behaviour, and on the other… Read more »

Observing America’s presidential election from afar has been a curious experience for foreigners. The next President will be the de facto ruler of the advanced nations, unelected by them, but subject to his or her overreaching strategic commands. On the one hand, we see the establishment candidate accused of criminal behaviour, and on the other… Read more »

The Trump Card

The financial markets have been reluctant to face the implications of a possible Trump victory in the US presidential election due to be held on 8 November.  Perhaps to many market participants Mr Trump’s statements thus far in the election campaign have seemed so extreme and impractical as to render him unelectable.  It may be, though, they have not… Read more »

The financial markets have been reluctant to face the implications of a possible Trump victory in the US presidential election due to be held on 8 November.  Perhaps to many market participants Mr Trump’s statements thus far in the election campaign have seemed so extreme and impractical as to render him unelectable.  It may be, though, they have not… Read more »

Why the EU is Doomed

We are accustomed to looking at Europe’s woes in a purely financial context. This is a mistake, because it misses the real reasons why the EU will fail and not survive the next financial crisis. We normally survive financial crises, thanks to the successful actions of central banks as lenders of last resort. However, the… Read more »

We are accustomed to looking at Europe’s woes in a purely financial context. This is a mistake, because it misses the real reasons why the EU will fail and not survive the next financial crisis. We normally survive financial crises, thanks to the successful actions of central banks as lenders of last resort. However, the… Read more »

Brexit and a Hanseatic League

David Cameron, Britain’s Prime Minister, has negotiated terms with the other EU member states, which he feels justified to put to voters in an in/out referendum called for 23rd June. At this early stage in the campaign, the terms are not sufficient to give a clear lead in favour a vote to stay, contributing to… Read more »

David Cameron, Britain’s Prime Minister, has negotiated terms with the other EU member states, which he feels justified to put to voters in an in/out referendum called for 23rd June. At this early stage in the campaign, the terms are not sufficient to give a clear lead in favour a vote to stay, contributing to… Read more »

What to do About Refugees

Last year literally hundreds of thousand refugees crossed from Turkey to Losbos and others ventured on a perilous voyage across the Mediterranean to get away from the hell in their own countries – some of which were caused by well-meaning Western politicians who thought that democracy in Libya was the way forward for them. The answer probably lies in… Read more »

Last year literally hundreds of thousand refugees crossed from Turkey to Losbos and others ventured on a perilous voyage across the Mediterranean to get away from the hell in their own countries – some of which were caused by well-meaning Western politicians who thought that democracy in Libya was the way forward for them. The answer probably lies in… Read more »

Advice to the Prime Minister

Your country faces a stagnating economy. Let us assume your Prime Minister (or President if that is who holds the executive power) seeks advice from two imaginary economists. PM: You two economists have different views on what our economic policy should be. What is your advice? FIRST ECONOMIST (Austrian school): Prime Minister, the reason we face a stagnant economy… Read more »

Your country faces a stagnating economy. Let us assume your Prime Minister (or President if that is who holds the executive power) seeks advice from two imaginary economists. PM: You two economists have different views on what our economic policy should be. What is your advice? FIRST ECONOMIST (Austrian school): Prime Minister, the reason we face a stagnant economy… Read more »

China Challenges World Order

What is the most serious challenge currently facing investors?  On a one-year view, there are several risks that spring to mind.  The US Federal Reserve could misjudge the withdrawal of monetary accommodation.  Global bond markets might, in any case, lose their upward impetus and, with yields so far below fundamentally justifiable levels, establish a powerful… Read more »

What is the most serious challenge currently facing investors?  On a one-year view, there are several risks that spring to mind.  The US Federal Reserve could misjudge the withdrawal of monetary accommodation.  Global bond markets might, in any case, lose their upward impetus and, with yields so far below fundamentally justifiable levels, establish a powerful… Read more »

Economic Insights – A Greek Epic

The mainstream media have interpreted the agreement between the Greek government and its creditors last Friday as finally removing the Grexit risk.  To be sure, the threat that Greece might leave the euro zone in the very near term has subsided, even if it has not been entirely removed.  The Greek government still has to present a package of… Read more »

The mainstream media have interpreted the agreement between the Greek government and its creditors last Friday as finally removing the Grexit risk.  To be sure, the threat that Greece might leave the euro zone in the very near term has subsided, even if it has not been entirely removed.  The Greek government still has to present a package of… Read more »

Economic Insights – G20 Mark Time

Mr Osborne and Mr Carney absented themselves from the weekend’s G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Cairns, so as to deal with potential fall-out from the Scottish referendum.  In the event, Scotland’s ‘No’ vote was taken calmly in financial markets.  The UK’s senior policymakers did not miss much at the G20.  The participants reviewed progress towards introducing… Read more »

Mr Osborne and Mr Carney absented themselves from the weekend’s G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Cairns, so as to deal with potential fall-out from the Scottish referendum.  In the event, Scotland’s ‘No’ vote was taken calmly in financial markets.  The UK’s senior policymakers did not miss much at the G20.  The participants reviewed progress towards introducing… Read more »

Economic Insights – The Euro’s Future

One of the stock topics at investment conferences nowadays is, ‘what does the future hold for the euro?’  Conference organisers see this as giving speakers the opportunity to tell their audiences that the single currency has survived its time of tribulation and that, through judicious ECB monetary policy and structural reform in the hard-pressed nations… Read more »

One of the stock topics at investment conferences nowadays is, ‘what does the future hold for the euro?’  Conference organisers see this as giving speakers the opportunity to tell their audiences that the single currency has survived its time of tribulation and that, through judicious ECB monetary policy and structural reform in the hard-pressed nations… Read more »