Posts Categorized: Current Events

Codes of Behaviour

Observing America’s presidential election from afar has been a curious experience for foreigners. The next President will be the de facto ruler of the advanced nations, unelected by them, but subject to his or her overreaching strategic commands. On the one hand, we see the establishment candidate accused of criminal behaviour, and on the other… Read more »

Observing America’s presidential election from afar has been a curious experience for foreigners. The next President will be the de facto ruler of the advanced nations, unelected by them, but subject to his or her overreaching strategic commands. On the one hand, we see the establishment candidate accused of criminal behaviour, and on the other… Read more »

The Trump Card

The financial markets have been reluctant to face the implications of a possible Trump victory in the US presidential election due to be held on 8 November.  Perhaps to many market participants Mr Trump’s statements thus far in the election campaign have seemed so extreme and impractical as to render him unelectable.  It may be, though, they have not… Read more »

The financial markets have been reluctant to face the implications of a possible Trump victory in the US presidential election due to be held on 8 November.  Perhaps to many market participants Mr Trump’s statements thus far in the election campaign have seemed so extreme and impractical as to render him unelectable.  It may be, though, they have not… Read more »

Why the EU is Doomed

We are accustomed to looking at Europe’s woes in a purely financial context. This is a mistake, because it misses the real reasons why the EU will fail and not survive the next financial crisis. We normally survive financial crises, thanks to the successful actions of central banks as lenders of last resort. However, the… Read more »

We are accustomed to looking at Europe’s woes in a purely financial context. This is a mistake, because it misses the real reasons why the EU will fail and not survive the next financial crisis. We normally survive financial crises, thanks to the successful actions of central banks as lenders of last resort. However, the… Read more »

Brexit and a Hanseatic League

David Cameron, Britain’s Prime Minister, has negotiated terms with the other EU member states, which he feels justified to put to voters in an in/out referendum called for 23rd June. At this early stage in the campaign, the terms are not sufficient to give a clear lead in favour a vote to stay, contributing to… Read more »

David Cameron, Britain’s Prime Minister, has negotiated terms with the other EU member states, which he feels justified to put to voters in an in/out referendum called for 23rd June. At this early stage in the campaign, the terms are not sufficient to give a clear lead in favour a vote to stay, contributing to… Read more »

What to do About Refugees

Last year literally hundreds of thousand refugees crossed from Turkey to Losbos and others ventured on a perilous voyage across the Mediterranean to get away from the hell in their own countries – some of which were caused by well-meaning Western politicians who thought that democracy in Libya was the way forward for them. The answer probably lies in… Read more »

Last year literally hundreds of thousand refugees crossed from Turkey to Losbos and others ventured on a perilous voyage across the Mediterranean to get away from the hell in their own countries – some of which were caused by well-meaning Western politicians who thought that democracy in Libya was the way forward for them. The answer probably lies in… Read more »

The Fed’s in a Bind

One can understand the Fed’s frustration over the failure of its interest rate policy, and its desire to escape the zero bound. However, since the FOMC has all but said it will increase rates at its December meeting, events have turned against this course of action. The other major central banks are in easing mode,… Read more »

One can understand the Fed’s frustration over the failure of its interest rate policy, and its desire to escape the zero bound. However, since the FOMC has all but said it will increase rates at its December meeting, events have turned against this course of action. The other major central banks are in easing mode,… Read more »

The Over-Valued Dollar

There are two connected reasons usually cited for the current dollar strength: the US economy is performing better than all the others, leading towards relatively higher US dollar interest rates, and that this is triggering a scramble for dollars by foreign corporations with uncovered USD liabilities. There is growing evidence that the first of these reasons is no longer true,… Read more »

There are two connected reasons usually cited for the current dollar strength: the US economy is performing better than all the others, leading towards relatively higher US dollar interest rates, and that this is triggering a scramble for dollars by foreign corporations with uncovered USD liabilities. There is growing evidence that the first of these reasons is no longer true,… Read more »

Doubts on monetary policy

The leading central banks in the advanced economies insist their policies are guided by targets, usually expressed in terms of the annual increase in a relevant consumer price index (CPI).  For the ECB, the target is annual CPI inflation below, but close to, 2%.  For the Bank of England (BoE) it is an annual rise in CPI of 2%,… Read more »

The leading central banks in the advanced economies insist their policies are guided by targets, usually expressed in terms of the annual increase in a relevant consumer price index (CPI).  For the ECB, the target is annual CPI inflation below, but close to, 2%.  For the Bank of England (BoE) it is an annual rise in CPI of 2%,… Read more »

China Challenges World Order

What is the most serious challenge currently facing investors?  On a one-year view, there are several risks that spring to mind.  The US Federal Reserve could misjudge the withdrawal of monetary accommodation.  Global bond markets might, in any case, lose their upward impetus and, with yields so far below fundamentally justifiable levels, establish a powerful… Read more »

What is the most serious challenge currently facing investors?  On a one-year view, there are several risks that spring to mind.  The US Federal Reserve could misjudge the withdrawal of monetary accommodation.  Global bond markets might, in any case, lose their upward impetus and, with yields so far below fundamentally justifiable levels, establish a powerful… Read more »

Gold and Russia

In late November I wrote an article suggesting that it could be in Russia’s interest to put the rouble on a gold exchange standard. The salient points were the Russians could easily make it stick, inflation would be tamed, and importantly Russia would divorce herself from the currency war being waged against her by her NATO enemies…. Read more »

In late November I wrote an article suggesting that it could be in Russia’s interest to put the rouble on a gold exchange standard. The salient points were the Russians could easily make it stick, inflation would be tamed, and importantly Russia would divorce herself from the currency war being waged against her by her NATO enemies…. Read more »